Friday, June 20, 2014

USA-Portugal - the reality check

So hopefully by now, the euphoria of winning the must-win game against Ghana has abated a little. Certainly, the rush of blood has to have dropped, but maybe the glow remains. And it is a good glow, to be enjoyed. Again, you have seen only one of eight USA World Cup wins in almost a century of play, and it was against the team that we had a score to settle.

But now, we are facing our next game, against Portugal, who, if you don't recall, actually has a score to settle with us. You know, for that 3-2 win in 2002 that basically scuttled their first Golden Generation.

But many are drooling over a few things, and while some are notable and will impact the game, others are nothing more than numbers. People are happy to see the 63% chance of advancing after the win, which certainly is an improvement. But it still is a statistic. A statistic that will mean absolutely zero on Sunday.

Let's look at a few other numbers. According to Norm Hitzges from KTCT The Ticket (yes, I love being able to cite local news media for accurate World Cup coverage) the line in Vegas is still heavily favoring Portugal to win. If I heard him right, -$150 Portugal and $300 for a tie or US win.

More to the point, he correctly pointed out that IF PORTUGAL DO WHAT THEY *SHOULD* DO - WIN BOTH OF THEIR REMAINING GAMES AGAINST TEAMS THAT THEY ARE BETTER THAN - THEY WILL ADVANCE.

Remember, nothing that happened in either game on Monday changed any of that statement.

It is sobering to think about - that we would have the joy of beating Ghana, but possibly nothing else, out of this World Cup. Let's not kid ourselves - we lose to Portugal and need a win against Germany to advance (a tie would only put us at four points, tied with Germany who would advance on goal differential), that would clearly be an incredible result.

I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer. I am just trying to accurately give a picture of where things stand.

In that light, though, let's talk about the things on Monday that WILL impact things on Sunday. The red card to Pepe, the injuries to Fabio Coentrao, Hugo Almeida, Bruno Alves and Rui Patricio - all will limit or eliminate their participation in the game Sunday. While the US has their own injr concerns, and with their lack of depth, those concerns will have a larger relative impact than just a missing player, you still have to give the injry report victory to Portugal - not something they want to win. Portugal is deep - not that deep.

You will notice I don't mention Christian Ronaldo. I don't think, based on what I have seen, that his injury concern is anything more significant than it was for the UEFA Champions League Final - and that guy was kinda good. No dice there, folks.

The other thing to take away from Portugal's 4-0 loss to Germany is that they obviously showed some buckling under stress, and that stress is only going to increase as we get closer and closer to game time. And once the first whistle blows, the longer they go without a goal, the pressure will increase exponentially.

Bottom line - there is reason for hope, and this team can do fantastic things. And there are definitely chinks in the Portugal armor. Let's just not forget the level of talent Portugal still has, or the fact that they have everything still in front of them.

Read HERE for the follow on article and what the US can try to accomplish on Sunday.

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