USA v. Portugal - Post Germany-Ghana

Actually, post Germany-Ghana and post Argentina-Iran. And there is reason for both the US and Portugal to fear the match tomorrow. Real, tangible, fear. The kind of thing you can smell in the sweat on your skin, that you can taste in the back of your throat. Delicious drama it will be tomorrow.

Fear for the USA

Let's start with the player that has been the only real competition Christiano Ronaldo has had for the FIFA Player of the Year award for some time - Messi. He scored a fabulous goal in second half stoppage time to give Argentina a 1-0 victory - exactly the kind of danger that "CR7" presents Sunday to the US. (If you haven't seen Argentina-Iran, to a degree, I apologize but really, what have you been doing with your life today?)

Every time you see the US play conservatively, defensively, tactically at times tomorrow, remember that. And remember that Nani is on the other side and is anything but a slouch. Both wings represent severe danger to the US chances to advance. To be sure, the US will need to attack. Absolutely, parking the bus is certain failure. But at the same time, this a time for tactical advances - at specific times, specific moments in the game, specific situations. Not for anything near even half the time.

Fear for the Portuguese

Now let's talk about the tie. Ghana showed itself very capable of competing in the Group of Death today, which should embolden the US to a large degree. Yes, Portugal, the team that beat you rather badly - embarrassingly, in fact -  had to fight from behind to TIE the team that we beat on Monday. Let that sink in, y'all. The US beat the team that just made a team that owned you on Monday wet their pants.

The Reality

As with everything, the reality is somewhere in the middle, and both teams have to deal with the implications of today's result.

First, let's look at the numbers, then we can talk about What It Means afterwards.

A tie puts the table as so:

Germany on 4 points after 2 games

USA on 3 points after 1 game

Ghana on 1 point after 2 games

Portugal on 0 points after 1 game

This prevents Germany from advancing based on a result in the USA-Portugal match. More importantly, it keeps Ghana's hopes alive. More on that in a moment.

A few more facts based on just the math.

A USA win tomorrow and Los Estados Unidos is guaranteed to advance out of the Group of Death.

A draw tomorrow puts the US and German team on four points, with Portugal and Ghana on 1 each.

A Portugal win tomorrow leaves Germany at the top at 4 points, with Portugal and the US tied on 3 points and Ghana on 1 points.

What Does It All Mean

First off, as it relates to Matchday Three - Thursday - no matter what happens tomorrow, other than a US win, Ghana will have something to play for against Portugal. This should be in the heads of the Portuguese as they can't look for "if we win today, we will play a defeated Ghana and it will be easier." None of that. In fact, no matter what happens on Sunday, I could very well see Ghana winning on Thursday as they came out of the game today with enough confidence to be quite a handful.

As much trouble as Portugal have had with mental fortitude, that could very well play into a lack of belief and add an additional layer of pressure that will, as discussed before, grow exponentially as the minutes tick by on Sunday.

Second, it should give the US position more strength across the board - a level of confidence that what they accomplished on Monday was quite relevant and in no way superfluous. The opposite of if Ghana had gone into the game and gotten squashed - leaving the US thinking, "oy, we fought tooth and nail to beat them and Germany crushed them just like Portugal...."

Of course, especially those of us who follow major College Football know that who played who is an inexact science at the best of times. But frankly, as important as confidence and mentality is in the World Cup, I'll take any edge I can get.

Beyond that, though, none of that matters one whit if the US loses. Which brings us back to how to apply it.

Sunday

This is an incredibly important game in the group - for every team. Portugal wins and everyone has something to play for on Thursday. Considering the way this World Cup has gone, that would be typical.

But for the US, the incredible opportunity that presents itself with a tie and the amazing reality of advancing after two games with a win have to be mouth-watering possibilities.

I think it starts with the reality that the US comes into the game from a distinct position of strength, at least in terms of their position in the group. And Portugal is a relatively known commodity. So take what I wrote earlier in "What are we going to do about this" and "Attacking Options", and let's get a little more specific.

I am all the more convinced that a 4-2-3-1 is called for. Actually, more of a 4-1-1-3-1 with Beckerman being the "stay at home at all times" d-mid and Jones being the second "keep defensive shape, but if the right situation presents itself, get forward in a safe way" d-mid, Bradley in the hole and Bedoya and Zusi on the wings.

Additionally, barring an amazing opportunity like what presented itself in the early moments of the US-Ghana match, stay home and stay compact, then find spots to put pressure on Portugal's unsettled back line, and for the love of all things, finish your chances.

Again, the longer the game goes, the more pressure will mount on Portugal. The trick is going to be finding times to possess high, and to attack. That has to happen, and it has to be effective when it does. Again, hence why Zusi is the player I peg to fill Altidore's spot on the lineup. But if the US can be tactically smart, situationally aware and take advantage of their chances - like they have against Mexico numerous times, including against them in the World Cup in 2002, as well as against Spain in 2009, a similar result is entirely possible.

Danger, Will Robinson - Danger!

It must be said, though, the vastly important difference between effective attacking at strategic times and what we saw for much of the Ghana match - an attempt to do just that (defend in an organized way, attack strategically) that frankly, failed. A large majority of the match, anything in the Ghana half was ineffective due to bad passing, bad decisions - generally, a lack of composure, not a lack of effort.

I don't think that will happen for a couple of reasons. First, I think a big part of that had to do with a formation not designed to do that, but rather to attack, and second, the injuries, especially to Altidore and Dempsey. Finally, the abject ineffectiveness of Michael Bradley. Relatively speaking of course, but I don't think we have seen a game that poor from Bradley in quite some time - certainly not since he originally went to AS Roma.

So going into the game knowing that we have a different tactical plan than the Ghana match, with personnel that fits that plan a bit better, and surely Bradley can't have two awful games in a row, can he?

There is one other thing, and this is something that probably surprised many, not just me - all the musculature issues. Beyond Altidore, also Besler and Cameron. And what is Bedoya's status? Remember, he was subbed out for injury late for Zusi. Remember, this game is in the Amazon - so the weather will be a factor. 

In most situations, I would favor the US over anyone from Europe, Asia or North America in terms of fitness. In Brazil, I would give South American sides the benefit of the doubt and Central and South African teams are just so athletic. So according to Hoyle, we would have the advantage on Portugal. But the injuries we had in the Ghana match give me pause. This will be something to watch.

A Tie Is Very Good

As excited as we might get about a win, even if a win doesn't happen, a tie is likely and that is a fantastic result for the US at this point in the tournament. If nothing else, it lays the foundation where both Germany and the US advance with a tie - and Germany advancing as the first seed. 

Considering what appears to be the relative weakness of Group H, or simply the fact that the US would have advanced out of the Group of Death, I don't see where the US would want to try to win that game and risk losing their position of advancement, and Germany would be happy to advance as the No. 1 seed. Frankly, I wouldn't expect Germany to just "let" the US tie them, but I can't see them opening up too much to try to get the win.

We will see how it plays out, but I am more and more encouraged by the history of the US being able to frustrate a talented but frustratable side, especially considering what appears to be a very unified and focused US team.

The questions will be (A) will the be set up tactically the right way, (B) can they  execute that plan, (C) will they be fit and healthy enough, and (D) can they keep their composure as the match temperature rises. Time will tell, but those are the things to watch for.

That and the next installment of the Jack Bauer video.

Sleep well, folks, for tomorrow, we dine in Hell! 

USA-Portugal - What are we going to do about this?

So yesterday, it was the Reality Check. Truth of the matter is this: a win over Ghana does nothing to change the fact that Portugal - on paper - is a better team, man for man, than the US, even without their injured players.

But as the New York Yankees prove more often than not, on paper means jack squat. Nada. Zilch. Dare I say - Cero. (See what I did there?)

The US has a glorious history of upsets in the World Cup and other major tournaments. England 0, USA 1 in Belo Horizonte is a probably the first, and if you are in-country, you probably can find someone who was there. (What a fantastic story that would be!!!!!) USA 2, Colombia 1 in 1994. Mexico 0, Estados Unidos 2 in Jeonju in 2002. And I would put the USA 1, Italy 1 in 2006 in that list. Down to nine men against the eventual champions? Probably the biggest win on the biggest stage against the biggest opponent wasn't in the World Cup, but it did break Spain's fantastic unbeaten streak in a knockout game - 2-0 in South Africa in 2009.

But the one that many of the Portuguese players will remember is the one that I am pretty sure launched the second wave of US soccer fandom - USA 3, Portugal 2 in Suwon, South Korea.

That is a fun list. It doesn't change the fact that Portugal are a very talented - and right also now, a very scared, injured and desperate - animal. So a lot of the underestimation that possibly played into a number of those other results probably isn't going to be in the air tomorrow night. But it still is enough history that any US fan has reason to believe a result tomorrow is quite possible.

As is Portugal's history of imploding. It is interesting, but one train of thought is that Portugal was so desperate to win the group that they threw everything into a game that shouldn't have mattered. Play the warm up, try to get a tie at worst, win the game if you can, but by all costs, don't lose 4-0 with a red card and a slew of injuries - because if you do, the winning of the other two games - something that should be very attainable - will become not only more difficult, but absolutely necessary.

Make no mistake, a tie does Portugal no good tomorrow. They are in must win mode. Whether they have to win both games will depend on today's match between Germany and Ghana, but on Sunday, no matter what happens today, they have to win. So there SHOULD be as much desperation as possible in the Portuguese side.

Which should play into the hands of the US. And here is where we talk about what the US has to do to get that all important tie or the incredibly awesome over-the-top-ness of a win.

Revert to the 5-2-3-1 and use its flexibility to do two things. First, attack Ronaldo's side. He is a fantastic player, but if he has to spend energy defending, it will be much harder to stay high and focus on that all important finish that he can produce to win the game.

I am not saying all out attack. The line of confrontation should be midfield, not their defending third. But when you do have the ball, attack with purpose, speed, determination. The US attack has to scare the Portuguese enough to commit real players to defense - not only Ronaldo, but also Nani.

And this brings us to the players. Assuming that Bedoya is healthy, then because of what you need to do, you bring in Zusi so that both wingers can drop back to defend and break out in attack. And make sure that Jones knows his first responsibility is defense, but when it is the right time, get into the attack. When operated properly, the 4-2-3-1 allows one side and one d-mid to attack without unbalancing things.

So the one thing that the US has time and again showed it can do - play organized, defensively structured and composed soccer - is the one thing they need to do incredibly well to get a result against Portugal and move closer to doing something unthinkable back in December: advance out of the Group of Death.

And here is the thing that gets me giddy. We have done it a million times to El Tri, including with half our roster injured or out on yellow cards, on the biggest stage ever (for the US) - the Round of 16 in Jeonju. But we also did it to Spain in the Confederations Cup in 2009. And it was by a very familiar scoreline.

Is Dos a Cero possible tomorrow? Absolutely. And although it might not actually be 2-0 - it could be 1-0, or under these circumstances, even 0-0, but getting a result that moves the US closer to advancing is absolutely possible. 

Just remember that the stakes are incredibly high, and every throw in, every tackle, every save is insanely important. And remember how important this is to Portugal. And how much talent they still have remaining, including that just like Messi just did to Iran, Christiano Ronaldo can do to any team, even one with Tim Howard in goal. That danger will ALWAYS be lurking.

So to that end, the importance of every move to neutralize that danger - force him to run to defend, not give away free kicks within 35 yards out (plus or minus), and when you get a chance on goal, finish it like your life depends on it.

Do that, and soccer glory for the USA is there to be had tomorrow.

The last time the US played Portugal in the World Cup, it was a similar opportunity and the Americans took it - although not nearly as many US fans were ready for the wave.

Are you going to be ready for it tomorrow?

Make sure you are - because it could very well be a moment of greatness that they will talk about for decades to come.

I am not saying the US will win. In fact, I am not saying the US is even going to tie - but despite the challenge, despite the opponent, the danger, the quality, the size of the moment, the US has a CLEAR HISTORY of doing so in the past, and is clearly capable of doing so again.

USA-Ghana - Pregame expectations

Quick and dirty, here we go.

Motivation and What Is At Stake

It doesn't get any clearer than this. Ghana has ended the US World Cup effort twice in a row. Add on to that the result from this morning (if you know it, you know why, if you don't, then you are avoiding the result to watch the game or . . . why are you reading this article again?) and it is very very simple - win this game and you have a clear path to advancing.

Not necessarily win and you are through - far from it. But win and you have two opportunities to cement your advancement. Tie and the road is tough. Lose and you are most likely done barring some really oddball results.

The Opponent

Ghana is one of the better African teams, generally as athletic as any, with European players, and the organizational and tactical development that comes with that experience. Usually considered with the Ivory Coast as the two most likely to succeed in the World Cup generally, they are like the US in that they realize being in the Group of Death means there is no tomorrow, especially today.

They were a surprise in 2006, but their success in 2010 was not beyond expectations. The fact that they were the African side to advance the farthest was, on the other hand, a bit of a surprise.

But how are they now? Four years and a lot can change. Considering their play in recent African competition (Continental championship and World Cup qualification), they do not seem as strong as they were in 2010. Then again, a lot can change even in the eight months between their last competitive match of note and today.

Big questions for them - how will they handle the heat, and how will they handle the moment? Word has it that there will be a sizable US presence at the game. The heat will probably not hinder them any more than the Americans, and it might even be an advantage. But will nerves get the most of them? This could in fact be a game where the US fan support could make a difference.

Our Lads

So we know the following: Altidore, Dempsey, Bradley, Howard. Most likely Cameron, Jones and Beckerman. Probably Besler or Brooks, Johnson, Beasley? And then the open question - Graham Z or Bedoya.

What I really like about that lineup is the lack of experience. Wait, what? Yes. Lack of experience. Other than a few, none have the weight of losing to Ghana on their conscience, but all know that Ghana kept the US back and will still be motivated to avenge those losses.

I think the biggest question really comes down to unity as a team, and organization at the back. With Howard in goal, if the back six can stay organized and not make the Big Mistake, then it will be up to the attack to get a goal or two. A shutout is not impossible, and if the right defenders play well behind Beckerman or Jones, even likely, so even one goal could be the match winner.

As for unity, here is where I think Klinsmann has it right on the Donovan decision - there is zero question in my mind that the XI that will take the field today will be so motivated, so dialed in, and so ready to excise eight years of frustration with Ghana that it will take the game of the Ghanians lives to win today. Donovan has at times been unfocused, and that is something that simply cannot happen today. Simply put, the entire tournament hinges on a win today.

In the attack, it is hard to put too much on one performance, but that last goal for Altidore against Nigeria has to give you goosebumps. What a striker's goal, no? Get that moment of brilliance today, with an organized defense and the crowd support that we expect, and the US chances have to be good, even without a contribution from Bradley or Dempsey.

I also like Bradley and Dempsey, though. Clint has no fear of Ghana, and he has to take confidence from his goal in 2006 - in a lot of ways, his coming out party for the US. And Bradley seems to have take on a bigger and bigger role for the US the longer he has played for Klinsmann. I almost want to say I guarantee a goal from Bradley today, and I certainly think a goal or an assist from him is a very good bet. (Not that I condone that sort of thing, mind you...).

Bottom Line

I have not wavered from this since December - this is a must win if we want to advance. This game is the tournament. Not that if we win, we are through - far from it. There would still be yeoman's work to be done even with a strong win. But any chance of advancing hinges on three points today.

Give me the right defense, and if they have a good game, it is all there for the taking. I really do have faith that rested, fresh and prepared, we will find a way to score today. Howard will make the Black Stars earn it from the defense, so there you have it. It is on you, Geoff and Co. Do us proud!

What expectations should we have for the USA?

What to expect?

So the US is headed into another World Cup. As they have in recent years, they come out of CONCACAF having secured their place in the World Cup relatively comfortably, but this time, something is new.  This is not the “We have to get out of the first round” Bora Mulitinovic side that was borne of hosting the 1994 World Cup, nor is it the Sampson-Arena-Bradley “We are what we are, let’s do the best we can” sides.

No, this time, we went out and paid handsomely for Jurgen Klinsmann of Germany fame, with the specific goal of being more than just “what we are.” It was a transition that had to come at some point, and credit has to go to the Federation for being proactive about it rather than waiting for the average American player to improve to a level where the transition would be relatively easy. No, Sunil Gulati went out and pushed the envelope with this decision.

Raise the Bar

It has been pretty clear for some time that the US mens’ soccer program has been making progress, albeit incremental progress, for years. The 2002 and 2010 editions certainly exceeded expectations, including fantastic results against big teams such as England, Portugal, Mexico and amazing moments against teams like South Korea and Algeria. Even the 2006 edition had a phenomenal match against the eventual champions, Italy, and was more of a run of poor performance rather than a lack of talent.

But with the population of the US, their history in sports in general – including the Olympics, and the overall competitive nature of those crazy Yanks, there has long been a sense that things could and should be better. Maybe a misunderstanding of the lack of depth that the Americans have feeds into that perception, but at the end of the day, if we can have success in random Olympic sports, why can’t we have success in football?

But the huge question is how? And if we think we know how, then how far do we expect them to go, and how soon?

Klinsmann came in for this World Cup cycle, and made it clear that he was here to chance the status quo. A whole new slate of coaches up and down the US soccer program gave him a free hand to have influence all along the development stream. But how soon would that bear fruit?

On top of that, he went aggressively for anyone who might qualify to play for the US, especially in Germany. In a way, it made sense. It takes 6 to ten years to really influence the development of a soccer nation, and to really make an impact, we’re probably talking 15 to 20 (starting with kids in the 5 to ten year old range to teach simple technique and molding them until they are 20 to 25). So that was mathematically impossible, at least to show results for the 2014 World Cup.

Third, he began his process, teaching his philosophy.

The results of the first effort won’t be known for some time, and trying to read into results from those teams at this point requires more insight into the future than I possess. The initial results of the second effort were not good, although if you saw it as a chance early on for him to seek out any possible diamonds in the rough, and use what he knew (Germany football) to compare to the bottom half of the US player pool, it probably was effective at giving him some baseline information.

The results of the third, though, were quite apparent and mostly positive. The US, after struggling on the road at Honduras, ended up tearing through qualifying to top the group, and on that run, saw the team break a little out of their usual two-defensive-midfielders, defend and counter-attack against good teams mold. It included a friendly win at the Azteca – no small feat that, although it was hardly best of the US v best of El Tri.

Which leads us to preparation for the World Cup in Brazil, which included two very intriguing story lines.

Qualifying v. competing in the tournament proper

Every US coach since Mulitinovic has had to focus first on qualifying out of CONCACAF, then on preparing for the competition in the World Cup itself. Two very different types of play. In CONCACAF, you have anywhere from one to three quality opponents – usually Mexico and often Costa Rica, and sometimes a third from the group of Honduras and the like. Most of the time, few of those players have the kind of size and quality that you have in playing in the World Cup, even from the top teams. This leads to a faster, more skilled team designed to break down the Guatemalas and El Salvadors.

Steve Sampson recognized it, but between the transition of MLS hindering the development of certain players, and the whole issue with a certain team captain, he walked into a firing squad in France. Certainly starting against Germany was a tough row to hoe.

Arena got it right once, and did a good job overall the second time, but in this writer’s opinion, the veteran leadership simply wasn’t the same in 06 as it was in 02 and you got a drop in form in the first match that cost them a lot. Oh, and a converted midfielder (without the size and strength of Tony Sanneh) at left fullback against one of the best European teams at the time – recipe for failure. The nice thing, from this writer’s perspective, was the difference in response from the ’98 failure to the ’06 flop – it was more of a “we are better than this, and let’s get to work” rather than the ugliness that was post-98.

Bradley had the amazing run in the Confederations Cup to bolster his side, but he still had to make some transitions that obviously paid off against what was perceived as a very tough opening match, clearly highlighting the point about CONCACAF v. let’s say, England.

Klinsmann, on the other hand, has kept a lot of his team together, even to the extent of including a converted midfielder at left fullback. But a lot of his team, especially the young and quite inexperienced defense, is what he used to get through qualifying – one that was less reliant on defend and counter and oftentimes was more attacking in philosophy.

With one key exception…

Donovan

This has been discussed to death, and for good reason. The most decorated and statistically relevant player in US history, Landon Donovan, was left of the plane for Brazil even though he obviously still is a competitive player and likely one of the best 15 players the US has.

After reading and discussing, this writer is of the opinion that it came down to two things. First, mentality. Donovan is talented, no doubt, but he isn’t the hard, aggressive, competitive player that, say, Michael Bradley or Clint Dempsey is. And that apparently is a huge part of the kind of camp that Klinsmann wants. Personally, it is hard for me to balance that with what Donovan did to win the Algeria game – if that doesn’t personify the “never say die” mentality, I don’t know what does – but again, I am trying to understand and explain what I can about Klinsmann, not justify it.

Second, I think he wants to make sure that it is clear that his captain, Dempsey, has no ghost in the room in terms of “the most decorated player in US history” who might be pacing himself in terms of level of play because he is on the wrong side of 30.

But bottom line, he clearly is saying that he needs the players he feels are able to best help this team right now. It is a pretty bold statement, and may not be the best bet. Frankly, I can see a need for a player like a rested Donovan in the third game against Germany (talk about a chance at redemption). But it is the decision Klinsmann has made.

Conclusion

So with all of that being said by way of landscape – and that is a lot of ground to cover – we come to the question we started with, “how are we to judge Klinsmann in this World Cup?” Without going into much detail, let me say that the “if we don’t get out of the group, it is a failure” is out the window. Simply look at the opponents to know that. The US has never had a tougher task to get out of the group. So what is it? For me, this side should be good enough to win a “must win” game against Ghana. So that is step one.

Next, make the most of it. Play well against Portugal and Germany, and if they make the plays to win it (a free from Ronaldo or some-such), so be it. But make them earn it. Leave everything on the field, and ideally, by trying to play – not by trying to bunker and steal on the counter. Especially against Portugal. If we beat Ghana, tie Portugal and need a tie to advance, bunker until the cows come home against Germany. But that is situational. Ultimately, play well, play like you belong, and if you lose, lose because the other team was better, not because you made a stupid mistake. Lose because they have the best player in the world, not because we brought someone less experienced than Landon Donovan.

Ultimately, if you don’t advance, have it be because the opponents were better, not because you brought youth rather than Landon Donovan.

Implausible Dreams - June 2014

I'm not giving in to security under pressure
I'm not missing out on the promise of adventure
I'm not giving up on implausible dreams

Implausible Dreams is my personal webpage, originally posted in 2002. It has gone through a few changes since then, but the basics remain - sharing my passions. Right now, the main focus is FC Dallas and the 2014 World Cup.

As such, here is my latest on FC Dallas - The Red Book.

Also, the biggest news about the World Cup for US soccer fans is Landon Donovan's exclusion from the roster. I think I may have figured out a few reasons why, followed by Digging Deeper Into Donovan Decision.

It is interesting how things come full circle. When I started this webpage, it was to channel my passion for the US going to the 2002 World Cup. Now, we are seeing the end of that arc, at least for Landon Donovan. What new Implausible Dreams lay in store for us now?

Look for more articles about the US national team as we go forward, along with regular updates to The Red Book.

Previous version of my Implausible Dreams overview.

Digging Deeper into the Donovan Decision

It has been days, and still the decision to not include Landon Donovan in the US National team going to Brazil for the 2014 FIFA World Cup is a talking point.

As I have talked with fans and players alike, and read more than a few articles - some rather fire-breathing - I must admit I am more confused than when the discussion began, but I do know a few things more than when I wrote my first article - enough that I felt it worth another piece.

Before I go into that, though, I want to say that I have no direct knowledge of Landon Donovan or Jurgen Klinsmann, or anyone involved with the current US National Team program, so everything you see here is me doing as you probably are - sifting through various facts and details that are not continuous and contiguous. In fact, the quotes below are from the ESPN "Inside: US Soccer's March to Brazil" and therefore are not directly in context of "Why was Donovan left off the team."

I am going to break these into two groups of themes. The first group will continue where I left off in my previous article - possible reasons for Klinsmann's decision. The second group will touch on the concerns I am left with after evaluating the first group.

But I want to highlight something - I learned a long time ago not to make concrete judgments about a coach, certainly not without being in the middle of the practices and training sessions, and with the coaching background that professional coaches have, and with an intimate knowledge of the players themselves.

That comes from seeing things at the local level in Dallas (six different head coaches over nineteen seasons) and from the Korea and Germany World Cups, as well as various other matches in the US. Time and again, things impacted the way the teams played that there simply was no way to see from the outside. This may very well be another one of those times.

The Arguments For The Decision

Not a lot has changed in the public reasons for leaving Donovan off the roster, but certainly the vitriol has risen. Throw in Donovan scoring MLS goals 135 and 136 - breaking the record for most goals by a player in league history - and you have a cauldron of discussion all across the Twitterverse, Facebook and the internet.

But we do seem to have more details fleshed out for what I break into three different reasons why Donovan may have been left off the roster.

Grit?

It is probably unfair, but Donovan has been dogged by complaints that he hasn't shown consistent, professional grit - specifically, he hasn't taken on the challenge of European football and found a way to stick. I have always felt that this is unfair in large part because what it takes to make it to be a professional athlete is amazing - the physical work, the skill work, the mentality. It takes monumental grit to get to where Donovan has been in MLS and for the US.

But in this moment, the past doesn't matter. What matters is does (the player in question) have the (specific variable) to help the US National Team succeed in the toughest group in the 2014 FIFA World Cup?

And in this situation, does Donovan have the grit to keep pace with Jermaine Jones, Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey?

"We have to know what it means to compete at the highest level," Bradley said in the aforementioned ESPN piece. "We have to be a group that is ready to stick together and fight like a bunch of warriors together for 90 minutes."

"I've always been taken by athletes who aren't necessarily the best, the most skillful, the most talented players, but the ones who know what it means to compete and fight."

Chemistry?

I can't even say I know anything about this topic other than I know it is an open question. Considering the waves of support Donovan has been getting, from all over the place including public statements from players like Bradley and goalkeeper Tim Howard, I am tempted to say this is the least likely of the three, but there is enough there that I feel it must be mentioned.

"When we get to Brazil, those three games, the biggest thing is going to be our togetherness," Tim Howard said, again from the ESPN piece. "All the rest of it, we will have done. We will have done all the running, our lungs will be filled, we'll have the strength. Its going to be the togetherness."

Burn Out?

This is another topic that there really is no way to know from the outside, but is Landon Donovan able to play at a high level, consistently? He took a sabbatical for a reason, and clearly credit should be given to him for recognizing that and going and doing it. And you have to admit, he looked rather strong Sunday night. But one quote struck me the most from the ESPN piece, and this is probably the one that is most on point and most germane to the conversation. Of all the quotes, this one is clearly in context.

"Jurgen has made it clear to me that he needs me to be consistent and performing, "Donovan said. "Sometimes its a little difficult for me. I can't train 12 straight days in a row and have 12 straight great days in a row. Physically, its not possible. My body breaks down, I'm getting older."

"I want to make sure that when I get to camp in May that I'm performing at my absolute best."

And that is probably the ultimate question - was he?

Arguments Against

But I am left with some lingering questions. Ultimately, while the reasons above may give why he isn't a first choice starter, I - and I think most who question the decision - can't seem to shake the feeling that he still has a lot more to bring to the team than players who are less experienced, less well-rounded, less skilled or less athletic. I am not going to name names, but I think we all know different players that those terms could apply to.

And here is where I get uneasy, because when you look at the successes of the US national team in the World Cup, so much of it leans on depth, where being able to play a fresh player is the difference between getting out of a group or not.

My most vivid moment of me learning "I know not what the coach should do" was the USA-Portugal match in 2002. I happened into some information before the game - that Claudio Reyna, Earnie Stewart and Clint Mathis were not going to be available for the game. I was floored. We were scared enough of the Golden Generation of Portugal as it was - don't take away our No. 10 and two of the best players on the roster too!

But then, the game that awoke a soccer nation happened, with a certain Landon Donovan playing an integral role. This was the youthful, inexperienced, but supremely talented kid that coach Bruce Arena had force fed minutes throughout the post-qualification process. It seemed almost every match in preparation for Korea included significant time for Donovan, and it paid off in spades. Of course, it wasn't just Donovan that day, but he surely was a big part.

So on one hand, I want to give Klinsmann the benefit of the doubt as so often, it has been made clear to me that coaching professional soccer is a high art and no amount of research will make Monday Morning Centerbacking effective. I know I had a lot of doubts about the young Landon Donovan as Arena kept giving him game after game after game in the lead up to 2002.

But I can't help think that after we have played Ghana, and gotten a result, that in the next two games - massive matches against the Nos. 2 and 3 teams in the world - being able to start Donovan would bring more to the table than to start someone who currently has zero World Cup experience, someone who doesn't bring the range of skill or athleticism or experience playing alongside Dempsey, Bradley, etc.

Personally, I don't think it was Donovan over the youthful players. I *think* it was other players that Klinsmann believes will be a better part of the overall unit, come off the bench strong when asked to, not start and still be ready to go 100% when his name is called, whether it is because of a perception of a drop in form of Donovan, or whether it is the up and down nature of his ability over the last years, or ultimately is it this - a perception that Donovan wants to be the lead dog, isn't any more, and like many many many other former greats, isn't able to make that transition that other players in the US kit have to a smaller role.

And only time will tell whether Klinsmann got it right. I do maintain my somewhat blind faith in a coaching staff that is that professional, has that experience, including World Cup experience. I am sure he has sounded out some in his his leadership cadre and gotten their take on whether Donovan should be in the 23, and has more than just personal reasons for keeping one of the greatest players to ever wear the US kit out of this World Cup.

But after more than a few days to marinate on this, I can't shake a feeling of unease that maybe we over-emphasized certain issues at the expense of the overall equation - that the World Cup is a grind of epic proportions, and in this World Cup, the US faces a tougher group than they have ever faced, and a player of Donovan's ability and experience can be managed into a situation where he is a motivated, energized part of a collective heartbeat that can get the all important results against Portugal or Germany, or if the US finds a way to advance, against its opponent in the Round of 16.

And if not, is that a reflection of Donovan, or Klinsmann?

Landon Donovan

After reflection, more on Landon Donovan

So we are less than 24 hours since the surprise absence of Landon Donovan from the roster for the US National Team going to the World Cup in Brazil, but the internet has been all abuzz about it and it seems some thoughts have been fleshed out. How abuzz? My college football Twitter list has been buried in it.

We know he still has talent, skill and athleticism, as well as a wealth of experience. Many are arguing that surely, he is an asset to any World Cup squad. And that is all very true.

Others have pointed out the up-and-down nature of his game over the last few years and asked if he is motivated enough to go through the grind that is a World Cup tournament, especially one as difficult as the group stage the US is facing - Germany, Portugal and the US nemesis the last few World Cups, Ghana.

But a LOT of the emotion that is coming to support Landon seems to be,"But he DESERVES it."

And here is where I think we can draw some distinctions.

US fans, we absolutely, totally, and completely owe him our thanks. A thousand times over. From the greatness of Suwon to the game against Algeria, and so many times in between, he provided something that the US needed to raise itself from the bowels of the international soccer world. Without him, we do not upset Portugal in the 2002 World Cup, or beat Mexico that same tournament. We maybe don't qualify for the 2006 World Cup. Or 2010. And the amazing moments in South Africa in 2010 - against Slovenia, and Algeria - do not happen without his unique skill set.

And frankly, that doesn't touch on hundreds of other games in between that also added to the credibility of the USA as a soccer nation.

But this isn't about thanks. That is what a farewell tour is for. Go see him play for the Los Angeles Galaxy and make him a sign if you want to thank him (and seriously, go do that. I am not being snarky or sarcastic when I say that - he deserves to see that). This is about the World Cup, a grind of a tournament like no other.

The USA has never faced a more athletic, skilled, talented, or experienced group of teams in the World Cup. FIFA rankings - Germany, 2; Portugal 3; Ghana technically 38th, but we know they are better than that, having made the Round of 16 in 2006 and the Quarterfinals in 2010. So the US is going to need its very best players performing at their very best, and the group as a whole performing as a cohesive unit to even have a reasonable showing, let alone get out of the group.

And where does Landon Donovan fit in that?

Considering his last three years, not real cleanly. His talent, his skill, his athleticism and his experience is not to be denied. But is he ready to go through the grind - and not just go through it, but lead and succeed?

This is where I think Jurgen Klinsmann is headed with his exclusion of Donovan. That a player with that level of experience will be expected to lead from the front, and if Donovan isn't ready to pick up the baton and run with it, maybe it isn't best for the group that he be there?

Personally, I don't know. I am like many - an outsider trying to make sense of it all. But from this particular cheap seat, I see a player who is tired, who has done his bit for King and Country, and as such deserves our respect and thanks, but who simply isn't ready to go back into the meat grinder that is a World Cup tournament.

So thank you, Landon Donovan, for a thousand things you have done to improve this soccer nation. Know that every step of success the USA has going forward is heavily influenced by your efforts, your passion, your personality. We are better for it.

But that does not equate to a spot on the World Cup roster, harsh as that might seem. You see, you did it - you helped us grow up. Being one of the 23 best players from your country is no longer good enough to make the World Cup roster. We wouldn't be here if it weren't for you. 

Go HERE for Part II as this story just doesn't seem to want to go away...

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