USA v. Portugal - Post Germany-Ghana

Actually, post Germany-Ghana and post Argentina-Iran. And there is reason for both the US and Portugal to fear the match tomorrow. Real, tangible, fear. The kind of thing you can smell in the sweat on your skin, that you can taste in the back of your throat. Delicious drama it will be tomorrow.

Fear for the USA

Let's start with the player that has been the only real competition Christiano Ronaldo has had for the FIFA Player of the Year award for some time - Messi. He scored a fabulous goal in second half stoppage time to give Argentina a 1-0 victory - exactly the kind of danger that "CR7" presents Sunday to the US. (If you haven't seen Argentina-Iran, to a degree, I apologize but really, what have you been doing with your life today?)

Every time you see the US play conservatively, defensively, tactically at times tomorrow, remember that. And remember that Nani is on the other side and is anything but a slouch. Both wings represent severe danger to the US chances to advance. To be sure, the US will need to attack. Absolutely, parking the bus is certain failure. But at the same time, this a time for tactical advances - at specific times, specific moments in the game, specific situations. Not for anything near even half the time.

Fear for the Portuguese

Now let's talk about the tie. Ghana showed itself very capable of competing in the Group of Death today, which should embolden the US to a large degree. Yes, Portugal, the team that beat you rather badly - embarrassingly, in fact -  had to fight from behind to TIE the team that we beat on Monday. Let that sink in, y'all. The US beat the team that just made a team that owned you on Monday wet their pants.

The Reality

As with everything, the reality is somewhere in the middle, and both teams have to deal with the implications of today's result.

First, let's look at the numbers, then we can talk about What It Means afterwards.

A tie puts the table as so:

Germany on 4 points after 2 games

USA on 3 points after 1 game

Ghana on 1 point after 2 games

Portugal on 0 points after 1 game

This prevents Germany from advancing based on a result in the USA-Portugal match. More importantly, it keeps Ghana's hopes alive. More on that in a moment.

A few more facts based on just the math.

A USA win tomorrow and Los Estados Unidos is guaranteed to advance out of the Group of Death.

A draw tomorrow puts the US and German team on four points, with Portugal and Ghana on 1 each.

A Portugal win tomorrow leaves Germany at the top at 4 points, with Portugal and the US tied on 3 points and Ghana on 1 points.

What Does It All Mean

First off, as it relates to Matchday Three - Thursday - no matter what happens tomorrow, other than a US win, Ghana will have something to play for against Portugal. This should be in the heads of the Portuguese as they can't look for "if we win today, we will play a defeated Ghana and it will be easier." None of that. In fact, no matter what happens on Sunday, I could very well see Ghana winning on Thursday as they came out of the game today with enough confidence to be quite a handful.

As much trouble as Portugal have had with mental fortitude, that could very well play into a lack of belief and add an additional layer of pressure that will, as discussed before, grow exponentially as the minutes tick by on Sunday.

Second, it should give the US position more strength across the board - a level of confidence that what they accomplished on Monday was quite relevant and in no way superfluous. The opposite of if Ghana had gone into the game and gotten squashed - leaving the US thinking, "oy, we fought tooth and nail to beat them and Germany crushed them just like Portugal...."

Of course, especially those of us who follow major College Football know that who played who is an inexact science at the best of times. But frankly, as important as confidence and mentality is in the World Cup, I'll take any edge I can get.

Beyond that, though, none of that matters one whit if the US loses. Which brings us back to how to apply it.

Sunday

This is an incredibly important game in the group - for every team. Portugal wins and everyone has something to play for on Thursday. Considering the way this World Cup has gone, that would be typical.

But for the US, the incredible opportunity that presents itself with a tie and the amazing reality of advancing after two games with a win have to be mouth-watering possibilities.

I think it starts with the reality that the US comes into the game from a distinct position of strength, at least in terms of their position in the group. And Portugal is a relatively known commodity. So take what I wrote earlier in "What are we going to do about this" and "Attacking Options", and let's get a little more specific.

I am all the more convinced that a 4-2-3-1 is called for. Actually, more of a 4-1-1-3-1 with Beckerman being the "stay at home at all times" d-mid and Jones being the second "keep defensive shape, but if the right situation presents itself, get forward in a safe way" d-mid, Bradley in the hole and Bedoya and Zusi on the wings.

Additionally, barring an amazing opportunity like what presented itself in the early moments of the US-Ghana match, stay home and stay compact, then find spots to put pressure on Portugal's unsettled back line, and for the love of all things, finish your chances.

Again, the longer the game goes, the more pressure will mount on Portugal. The trick is going to be finding times to possess high, and to attack. That has to happen, and it has to be effective when it does. Again, hence why Zusi is the player I peg to fill Altidore's spot on the lineup. But if the US can be tactically smart, situationally aware and take advantage of their chances - like they have against Mexico numerous times, including against them in the World Cup in 2002, as well as against Spain in 2009, a similar result is entirely possible.

Danger, Will Robinson - Danger!

It must be said, though, the vastly important difference between effective attacking at strategic times and what we saw for much of the Ghana match - an attempt to do just that (defend in an organized way, attack strategically) that frankly, failed. A large majority of the match, anything in the Ghana half was ineffective due to bad passing, bad decisions - generally, a lack of composure, not a lack of effort.

I don't think that will happen for a couple of reasons. First, I think a big part of that had to do with a formation not designed to do that, but rather to attack, and second, the injuries, especially to Altidore and Dempsey. Finally, the abject ineffectiveness of Michael Bradley. Relatively speaking of course, but I don't think we have seen a game that poor from Bradley in quite some time - certainly not since he originally went to AS Roma.

So going into the game knowing that we have a different tactical plan than the Ghana match, with personnel that fits that plan a bit better, and surely Bradley can't have two awful games in a row, can he?

There is one other thing, and this is something that probably surprised many, not just me - all the musculature issues. Beyond Altidore, also Besler and Cameron. And what is Bedoya's status? Remember, he was subbed out for injury late for Zusi. Remember, this game is in the Amazon - so the weather will be a factor. 

In most situations, I would favor the US over anyone from Europe, Asia or North America in terms of fitness. In Brazil, I would give South American sides the benefit of the doubt and Central and South African teams are just so athletic. So according to Hoyle, we would have the advantage on Portugal. But the injuries we had in the Ghana match give me pause. This will be something to watch.

A Tie Is Very Good

As excited as we might get about a win, even if a win doesn't happen, a tie is likely and that is a fantastic result for the US at this point in the tournament. If nothing else, it lays the foundation where both Germany and the US advance with a tie - and Germany advancing as the first seed. 

Considering what appears to be the relative weakness of Group H, or simply the fact that the US would have advanced out of the Group of Death, I don't see where the US would want to try to win that game and risk losing their position of advancement, and Germany would be happy to advance as the No. 1 seed. Frankly, I wouldn't expect Germany to just "let" the US tie them, but I can't see them opening up too much to try to get the win.

We will see how it plays out, but I am more and more encouraged by the history of the US being able to frustrate a talented but frustratable side, especially considering what appears to be a very unified and focused US team.

The questions will be (A) will the be set up tactically the right way, (B) can they  execute that plan, (C) will they be fit and healthy enough, and (D) can they keep their composure as the match temperature rises. Time will tell, but those are the things to watch for.

That and the next installment of the Jack Bauer video.

Sleep well, folks, for tomorrow, we dine in Hell! 

USA-Portugal - What are we going to do about this?

So yesterday, it was the Reality Check. Truth of the matter is this: a win over Ghana does nothing to change the fact that Portugal - on paper - is a better team, man for man, than the US, even without their injured players.

But as the New York Yankees prove more often than not, on paper means jack squat. Nada. Zilch. Dare I say - Cero. (See what I did there?)

The US has a glorious history of upsets in the World Cup and other major tournaments. England 0, USA 1 in Belo Horizonte is a probably the first, and if you are in-country, you probably can find someone who was there. (What a fantastic story that would be!!!!!) USA 2, Colombia 1 in 1994. Mexico 0, Estados Unidos 2 in Jeonju in 2002. And I would put the USA 1, Italy 1 in 2006 in that list. Down to nine men against the eventual champions? Probably the biggest win on the biggest stage against the biggest opponent wasn't in the World Cup, but it did break Spain's fantastic unbeaten streak in a knockout game - 2-0 in South Africa in 2009.

But the one that many of the Portuguese players will remember is the one that I am pretty sure launched the second wave of US soccer fandom - USA 3, Portugal 2 in Suwon, South Korea.

That is a fun list. It doesn't change the fact that Portugal are a very talented - and right also now, a very scared, injured and desperate - animal. So a lot of the underestimation that possibly played into a number of those other results probably isn't going to be in the air tomorrow night. But it still is enough history that any US fan has reason to believe a result tomorrow is quite possible.

As is Portugal's history of imploding. It is interesting, but one train of thought is that Portugal was so desperate to win the group that they threw everything into a game that shouldn't have mattered. Play the warm up, try to get a tie at worst, win the game if you can, but by all costs, don't lose 4-0 with a red card and a slew of injuries - because if you do, the winning of the other two games - something that should be very attainable - will become not only more difficult, but absolutely necessary.

Make no mistake, a tie does Portugal no good tomorrow. They are in must win mode. Whether they have to win both games will depend on today's match between Germany and Ghana, but on Sunday, no matter what happens today, they have to win. So there SHOULD be as much desperation as possible in the Portuguese side.

Which should play into the hands of the US. And here is where we talk about what the US has to do to get that all important tie or the incredibly awesome over-the-top-ness of a win.

Revert to the 5-2-3-1 and use its flexibility to do two things. First, attack Ronaldo's side. He is a fantastic player, but if he has to spend energy defending, it will be much harder to stay high and focus on that all important finish that he can produce to win the game.

I am not saying all out attack. The line of confrontation should be midfield, not their defending third. But when you do have the ball, attack with purpose, speed, determination. The US attack has to scare the Portuguese enough to commit real players to defense - not only Ronaldo, but also Nani.

And this brings us to the players. Assuming that Bedoya is healthy, then because of what you need to do, you bring in Zusi so that both wingers can drop back to defend and break out in attack. And make sure that Jones knows his first responsibility is defense, but when it is the right time, get into the attack. When operated properly, the 4-2-3-1 allows one side and one d-mid to attack without unbalancing things.

So the one thing that the US has time and again showed it can do - play organized, defensively structured and composed soccer - is the one thing they need to do incredibly well to get a result against Portugal and move closer to doing something unthinkable back in December: advance out of the Group of Death.

And here is the thing that gets me giddy. We have done it a million times to El Tri, including with half our roster injured or out on yellow cards, on the biggest stage ever (for the US) - the Round of 16 in Jeonju. But we also did it to Spain in the Confederations Cup in 2009. And it was by a very familiar scoreline.

Is Dos a Cero possible tomorrow? Absolutely. And although it might not actually be 2-0 - it could be 1-0, or under these circumstances, even 0-0, but getting a result that moves the US closer to advancing is absolutely possible. 

Just remember that the stakes are incredibly high, and every throw in, every tackle, every save is insanely important. And remember how important this is to Portugal. And how much talent they still have remaining, including that just like Messi just did to Iran, Christiano Ronaldo can do to any team, even one with Tim Howard in goal. That danger will ALWAYS be lurking.

So to that end, the importance of every move to neutralize that danger - force him to run to defend, not give away free kicks within 35 yards out (plus or minus), and when you get a chance on goal, finish it like your life depends on it.

Do that, and soccer glory for the USA is there to be had tomorrow.

The last time the US played Portugal in the World Cup, it was a similar opportunity and the Americans took it - although not nearly as many US fans were ready for the wave.

Are you going to be ready for it tomorrow?

Make sure you are - because it could very well be a moment of greatness that they will talk about for decades to come.

I am not saying the US will win. In fact, I am not saying the US is even going to tie - but despite the challenge, despite the opponent, the danger, the quality, the size of the moment, the US has a CLEAR HISTORY of doing so in the past, and is clearly capable of doing so again.

USA-Ghana - Pregame expectations

Quick and dirty, here we go.

Motivation and What Is At Stake

It doesn't get any clearer than this. Ghana has ended the US World Cup effort twice in a row. Add on to that the result from this morning (if you know it, you know why, if you don't, then you are avoiding the result to watch the game or . . . why are you reading this article again?) and it is very very simple - win this game and you have a clear path to advancing.

Not necessarily win and you are through - far from it. But win and you have two opportunities to cement your advancement. Tie and the road is tough. Lose and you are most likely done barring some really oddball results.

The Opponent

Ghana is one of the better African teams, generally as athletic as any, with European players, and the organizational and tactical development that comes with that experience. Usually considered with the Ivory Coast as the two most likely to succeed in the World Cup generally, they are like the US in that they realize being in the Group of Death means there is no tomorrow, especially today.

They were a surprise in 2006, but their success in 2010 was not beyond expectations. The fact that they were the African side to advance the farthest was, on the other hand, a bit of a surprise.

But how are they now? Four years and a lot can change. Considering their play in recent African competition (Continental championship and World Cup qualification), they do not seem as strong as they were in 2010. Then again, a lot can change even in the eight months between their last competitive match of note and today.

Big questions for them - how will they handle the heat, and how will they handle the moment? Word has it that there will be a sizable US presence at the game. The heat will probably not hinder them any more than the Americans, and it might even be an advantage. But will nerves get the most of them? This could in fact be a game where the US fan support could make a difference.

Our Lads

So we know the following: Altidore, Dempsey, Bradley, Howard. Most likely Cameron, Jones and Beckerman. Probably Besler or Brooks, Johnson, Beasley? And then the open question - Graham Z or Bedoya.

What I really like about that lineup is the lack of experience. Wait, what? Yes. Lack of experience. Other than a few, none have the weight of losing to Ghana on their conscience, but all know that Ghana kept the US back and will still be motivated to avenge those losses.

I think the biggest question really comes down to unity as a team, and organization at the back. With Howard in goal, if the back six can stay organized and not make the Big Mistake, then it will be up to the attack to get a goal or two. A shutout is not impossible, and if the right defenders play well behind Beckerman or Jones, even likely, so even one goal could be the match winner.

As for unity, here is where I think Klinsmann has it right on the Donovan decision - there is zero question in my mind that the XI that will take the field today will be so motivated, so dialed in, and so ready to excise eight years of frustration with Ghana that it will take the game of the Ghanians lives to win today. Donovan has at times been unfocused, and that is something that simply cannot happen today. Simply put, the entire tournament hinges on a win today.

In the attack, it is hard to put too much on one performance, but that last goal for Altidore against Nigeria has to give you goosebumps. What a striker's goal, no? Get that moment of brilliance today, with an organized defense and the crowd support that we expect, and the US chances have to be good, even without a contribution from Bradley or Dempsey.

I also like Bradley and Dempsey, though. Clint has no fear of Ghana, and he has to take confidence from his goal in 2006 - in a lot of ways, his coming out party for the US. And Bradley seems to have take on a bigger and bigger role for the US the longer he has played for Klinsmann. I almost want to say I guarantee a goal from Bradley today, and I certainly think a goal or an assist from him is a very good bet. (Not that I condone that sort of thing, mind you...).

Bottom Line

I have not wavered from this since December - this is a must win if we want to advance. This game is the tournament. Not that if we win, we are through - far from it. There would still be yeoman's work to be done even with a strong win. But any chance of advancing hinges on three points today.

Give me the right defense, and if they have a good game, it is all there for the taking. I really do have faith that rested, fresh and prepared, we will find a way to score today. Howard will make the Black Stars earn it from the defense, so there you have it. It is on you, Geoff and Co. Do us proud!

What expectations should we have for the USA?

What to expect?

So the US is headed into another World Cup. As they have in recent years, they come out of CONCACAF having secured their place in the World Cup relatively comfortably, but this time, something is new.  This is not the “We have to get out of the first round” Bora Mulitinovic side that was borne of hosting the 1994 World Cup, nor is it the Sampson-Arena-Bradley “We are what we are, let’s do the best we can” sides.

No, this time, we went out and paid handsomely for Jurgen Klinsmann of Germany fame, with the specific goal of being more than just “what we are.” It was a transition that had to come at some point, and credit has to go to the Federation for being proactive about it rather than waiting for the average American player to improve to a level where the transition would be relatively easy. No, Sunil Gulati went out and pushed the envelope with this decision.

Raise the Bar

It has been pretty clear for some time that the US mens’ soccer program has been making progress, albeit incremental progress, for years. The 2002 and 2010 editions certainly exceeded expectations, including fantastic results against big teams such as England, Portugal, Mexico and amazing moments against teams like South Korea and Algeria. Even the 2006 edition had a phenomenal match against the eventual champions, Italy, and was more of a run of poor performance rather than a lack of talent.

But with the population of the US, their history in sports in general – including the Olympics, and the overall competitive nature of those crazy Yanks, there has long been a sense that things could and should be better. Maybe a misunderstanding of the lack of depth that the Americans have feeds into that perception, but at the end of the day, if we can have success in random Olympic sports, why can’t we have success in football?

But the huge question is how? And if we think we know how, then how far do we expect them to go, and how soon?

Klinsmann came in for this World Cup cycle, and made it clear that he was here to chance the status quo. A whole new slate of coaches up and down the US soccer program gave him a free hand to have influence all along the development stream. But how soon would that bear fruit?

On top of that, he went aggressively for anyone who might qualify to play for the US, especially in Germany. In a way, it made sense. It takes 6 to ten years to really influence the development of a soccer nation, and to really make an impact, we’re probably talking 15 to 20 (starting with kids in the 5 to ten year old range to teach simple technique and molding them until they are 20 to 25). So that was mathematically impossible, at least to show results for the 2014 World Cup.

Third, he began his process, teaching his philosophy.

The results of the first effort won’t be known for some time, and trying to read into results from those teams at this point requires more insight into the future than I possess. The initial results of the second effort were not good, although if you saw it as a chance early on for him to seek out any possible diamonds in the rough, and use what he knew (Germany football) to compare to the bottom half of the US player pool, it probably was effective at giving him some baseline information.

The results of the third, though, were quite apparent and mostly positive. The US, after struggling on the road at Honduras, ended up tearing through qualifying to top the group, and on that run, saw the team break a little out of their usual two-defensive-midfielders, defend and counter-attack against good teams mold. It included a friendly win at the Azteca – no small feat that, although it was hardly best of the US v best of El Tri.

Which leads us to preparation for the World Cup in Brazil, which included two very intriguing story lines.

Qualifying v. competing in the tournament proper

Every US coach since Mulitinovic has had to focus first on qualifying out of CONCACAF, then on preparing for the competition in the World Cup itself. Two very different types of play. In CONCACAF, you have anywhere from one to three quality opponents – usually Mexico and often Costa Rica, and sometimes a third from the group of Honduras and the like. Most of the time, few of those players have the kind of size and quality that you have in playing in the World Cup, even from the top teams. This leads to a faster, more skilled team designed to break down the Guatemalas and El Salvadors.

Steve Sampson recognized it, but between the transition of MLS hindering the development of certain players, and the whole issue with a certain team captain, he walked into a firing squad in France. Certainly starting against Germany was a tough row to hoe.

Arena got it right once, and did a good job overall the second time, but in this writer’s opinion, the veteran leadership simply wasn’t the same in 06 as it was in 02 and you got a drop in form in the first match that cost them a lot. Oh, and a converted midfielder (without the size and strength of Tony Sanneh) at left fullback against one of the best European teams at the time – recipe for failure. The nice thing, from this writer’s perspective, was the difference in response from the ’98 failure to the ’06 flop – it was more of a “we are better than this, and let’s get to work” rather than the ugliness that was post-98.

Bradley had the amazing run in the Confederations Cup to bolster his side, but he still had to make some transitions that obviously paid off against what was perceived as a very tough opening match, clearly highlighting the point about CONCACAF v. let’s say, England.

Klinsmann, on the other hand, has kept a lot of his team together, even to the extent of including a converted midfielder at left fullback. But a lot of his team, especially the young and quite inexperienced defense, is what he used to get through qualifying – one that was less reliant on defend and counter and oftentimes was more attacking in philosophy.

With one key exception…

Donovan

This has been discussed to death, and for good reason. The most decorated and statistically relevant player in US history, Landon Donovan, was left of the plane for Brazil even though he obviously still is a competitive player and likely one of the best 15 players the US has.

After reading and discussing, this writer is of the opinion that it came down to two things. First, mentality. Donovan is talented, no doubt, but he isn’t the hard, aggressive, competitive player that, say, Michael Bradley or Clint Dempsey is. And that apparently is a huge part of the kind of camp that Klinsmann wants. Personally, it is hard for me to balance that with what Donovan did to win the Algeria game – if that doesn’t personify the “never say die” mentality, I don’t know what does – but again, I am trying to understand and explain what I can about Klinsmann, not justify it.

Second, I think he wants to make sure that it is clear that his captain, Dempsey, has no ghost in the room in terms of “the most decorated player in US history” who might be pacing himself in terms of level of play because he is on the wrong side of 30.

But bottom line, he clearly is saying that he needs the players he feels are able to best help this team right now. It is a pretty bold statement, and may not be the best bet. Frankly, I can see a need for a player like a rested Donovan in the third game against Germany (talk about a chance at redemption). But it is the decision Klinsmann has made.

Conclusion

So with all of that being said by way of landscape – and that is a lot of ground to cover – we come to the question we started with, “how are we to judge Klinsmann in this World Cup?” Without going into much detail, let me say that the “if we don’t get out of the group, it is a failure” is out the window. Simply look at the opponents to know that. The US has never had a tougher task to get out of the group. So what is it? For me, this side should be good enough to win a “must win” game against Ghana. So that is step one.

Next, make the most of it. Play well against Portugal and Germany, and if they make the plays to win it (a free from Ronaldo or some-such), so be it. But make them earn it. Leave everything on the field, and ideally, by trying to play – not by trying to bunker and steal on the counter. Especially against Portugal. If we beat Ghana, tie Portugal and need a tie to advance, bunker until the cows come home against Germany. But that is situational. Ultimately, play well, play like you belong, and if you lose, lose because the other team was better, not because you made a stupid mistake. Lose because they have the best player in the world, not because we brought someone less experienced than Landon Donovan.

Ultimately, if you don’t advance, have it be because the opponents were better, not because you brought youth rather than Landon Donovan.

2014 FIFA World Cup - general expectations

So I finally filled out my brackets for the World Cup - with only moments to spare...!

While I am a Student of the Game, and have been involved with the game professionally since 2005, I am in no way a deep-throat kind of expert. What I intend on doing in this post is just sharing some general insights based on my past experiences attending, studying and following past World Cups. For what it is worth, that includes an in-depth analysis of past World Cup games, following the World Cup since 1994 and including attending the 2002 and 2006 editions. I worked for FC Dallas of Major League Soccer from 2005 until 2012 and am currently writing for MLSSoccer.com and the Dallas Morning News soccer blog, 3rd Degree.

Home-Hemisphere Advantage

First, let's talk generalities. The strongest of European sides will advance, surely, but the home-field advantage of being on the home continent - or at least, the same hemisphere - will likely still have some impact. Do not underestimate the impact of the larger number of fans who will be able to travel to Brazil from Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, and even Ecuador and Chile, and the passion they will bring to the stadiums. That is the one thing that I absolutely miss every time I am not in-country for the World Cup....

Mexico

I like Mexico to advance out of their group for a few reasons.  First, Mexico has traditionally played Brazil well - styles matter in football, and sometimes you run into a team that is your kryptonite. Well, Brazil doesn't really have a kryptonite, but just like the US usually gives Mexico fits, same for Mexico to Brazil. Second, Croatia is a good but not great European side - the travel will hit them. Cameroon is a wild card, but between the transition from Africa over and the fact that they aren't the strongest of African sides at the moment makes me think that this isn't their year to advance. Then again, the weather similarity may work to their advantage. But I still have Mexico advancing.

Chile

Here is the first real test of my Home-Hemisphere Advantage. Chile is a wonderful team, with attacking flair should make Brazil blush at times. Playing well, and in front of a lot of home fans, I think they push both Holland and Spain. Do they advance? It depends on Spain-Holland. If those teams draw on Friday, then I think Chile will have their work cut out for them. If one of those two were to get the full three points, I think Chile will take the second spot at the expense of the loser.

Some call this a group of death and I find that doubtful. Simply put, Australia are not as strong as either the US or Ghana.

Colombia

Another strong South American country, I see Colombia doing well, certainly winning the group. The rest of Group C is quite the enigma. Greece? Mid-level Euro side half a world away, without a lot of attacking power. Japan - lots of athleticism and some playmaking ability, but again, half the world away without some of the quality seen on other teams in the group. Ivory Coast? One of the strongest African sides, this is my pick to advance, but it is a tenuous one as their tour in the US was not as successful as they might have wanted it to be.

Group D - England v. Italy and Uruguay in control

On the Home Hemisphere theory, I see Uruguay making it out of the group. I fear for my England friends that they will be left back at the expense of Italy just because I sense more cohesion and committment - and confidence - from the Azzurri than the Three Lions.

Group E - France, Switzerland and Ecuador

Because of Honduras, this isn't really a group of death, but certainly, you have three quality teams in this group and I have no real idea who will emerge. Ecuador is not as strong as some South American sides, and with France losing Ribery, it is hard to really say that one of the three is going to dominate, leaving us to decide between the other two.

Argentina

What a walk-through group this appears to be for Leonel's side. Iran will be a competitive side, but only to the extent that they won't be Saudi Arabia circa 2002. Nigeria is not at its best. Bosnia-Herzegovina, on the other hand, will be a very dangerous side at the group stage level, but Argentina has the class to draw with them, and do better on goal differential in their wins over the other group teams to come out on top of this group.

(Skipping Group G - saving the best for last)

Belguim

This is Belguim's group to win, leaving Russia to likely hold off South Korea, but when you travel halfway around the world, who knows which team will do better. Cappello will likely get more out of Russia than Bo will out of Korea, hence my lean in that direction.

The Group of Death - Group G

In many ways, this could be its own article, and probably will be. For now, though, know that like Chile in Group B, for Ghana and the US, what happens in the other game will define their ability to advance. If there is a tie between Germany and Portugal, both European juggernauts will make it very difficult for either the African or North American sides to advance. If Germany or Portugal wins, though, and there is a winner out of the Ghana-US match, then they have a chance. Draws all around on Monday is very possible and that would throw things wide open. I do see Germany as the class of the group, with Portugal a clear second and Ghana and the US very hungry right behind that.

The Unexpected

Someone always comes out flat. France in 2002 ring a bell? Who knows who it will be this time, but that will be something to watch for. I think I have highlighted the possible sleepers and surprises, although to be fair, mostly I am leaning on the usual advantage playing close to home has on teams. Either way, it should be fascinating to see, especially with the groups that have three teams with legitimate resumes to advance (A, B, D, E and G).

Put on your big boy pants and get in line now - it is going to be quite a ride!

The Emergence of a Footballing Nation - USA v. Portugal, June 5, 2002

So it was my first World Cup. It is June, 2002 and the last US World Cup effort was an embarrassment. Not an embarrassment like the disappointment of 2006 where we were better than we showed, but worst team in the tournament, lost to Iran embarrassment.

And now we were on our way to play the Golden Generation of Portugal. Luis Figo of Real Madrid fame, and the like.

So what expectations did I have?

Then again, I was AT THE WORLD CUP! And I was wearing my heart on my sleeve no matter what, standing in Sam’s Army, surrounded by like-minded supporters – some of which I knew, some not, but all brothers and sisters in arms and we were going to give it our all.

Thing was, the group I was going with had a few people in tenuous contact with the team itself, and word the morning of the match was shocking – no Claudio Reyna, no Clint Mathis. So for comparison, no Bradley, no Altidore. Going against a dark horse to win it all. I think they were ranked No. 4 in the world at the time.

Gulp!

But then again, then as now, the US wasn’t a feared juggernaut, so we were going to be underdogs to begin with. So either way, it was going to be a gut-check time no matter which way you sliced it. The advantage, though, was of those who stood and cheered for the USA, a very large majority of us were here, in-country. The percentage of supporters who didn’t make the trip is never what you want, but there weren’t the hangers-on, the johnny-come-latelys (because they didn’t really exist just yet).

This is a band of brothers/sisters that had deep belief in the team and each other, borne from a long, treacherous qualifying campaign and supporting the US in the sport of soccer.

As we are in transit to Korea, we see Saudi Arabia get killed by Germany. Ouch. As we are one of the last groups to play, it seems everyone is breaking the nervousness with their first match and it just pours on the pressure on us.

Getting on the bus to the stadium, I have “One Little Victory” by Rush in my ear. “A certain measure of innocence – a willingness to appear naïve. A certain degree of imagination, a measure of make-believe.” Why not us? Why not now?

And that has been the general mindset of US supporters anyway – “Figo who?” and “We’d rather have Clint Mathis than Figo” chants, and others like it, were all over the place. Of course, a lot of it was hopeful/dreaming/throw-caution-to-the-wind and maybe even tongue in cheek, but there was a true kernel of belief underlying it all. After all, we beat England at Belo Horizonte back in the day, we beat Colombia in ’94 – anything can happen.

The thing of it was, though, I truly, deeply, terribly believed that US soccer would one day explode with an amazing result and shock the world – probably more than I believed in anything else in the material world.

I just didn’t think that I’d be 20 rows from it when it happened, and that was going to happen on June 5, 2002 in Suwon, Korea.

The nervous energy is flowing now as we enter the stadium. I am kicking myself for not bringing a drum as I was used to doing for Dallas Burn matches.  But we’re with others that we know – some from Dallas, some from other US games we’ve met at qualifiers and friendlies – and the camaraderie is strong.

The national anthem, the unfurling of the Flag of Greatness. We’re all on our feet, singing at the top of our lungs.

But still, any hope is the hope of blind faith. But that ember is still there, waiting, burning quietly.

Wait, what? Landon Donovan, the wonderkid, is starting? Bruce Arena had been feeding him minutes and everyone could see he had talent, but is he really ready to START? Against PORTUGAL? And DeMarcus Beasley? Really? The beginnings of my faith in coaches starts here, by the way. More later.

The game starts. We’re pressing high, Portugal is responding well early. The back and forth is crazy. We’re talking the first moments of the match – most of which is played in our defensive half.

And then it happens. The series begins with a foul on McBride (contrary to Bruce Arena’s “First foul, first shot, first goal” speech) for a free kick in the middle of the field. A shot in by Earnie Stewart is touched out of bounds for a corner, right in front of the US supporters section.

Earnie puts the ball down for the corner with emphasis – using both hands, with determination. It seemed a little melodramatic at the time, but then again, it was very much a “let’s do this” feeling at the moment.

The corner comes in – McBride fights off a player to get a header towards goal and the initial anticipation wanes just a moment, but the ball isn’t clear – the heart is still high in the throat. A save is made, but not controlled – where is the bounce going to go?!?!?!?

And then, John O’Brien takes the clearest, cleanest, most important finish of his career, and we explode!

Not only are we in the game, but we are LEADING! In the FOURTH MINUTE! Wow, it is early, so it is going to be a LONG game, but better to lead than not, eh? If we were pouring everything we had into the game before, now we are searching for our deepest part of the well because the ember has some oxygen to burn – we really do have a chance to get a result!

The next 25 minutes are back and forth, with Portugal trying to get back in it. It isn’t crazed just yet because we really do have a lot of game to play. But the pressure is building with every moment they don’t score. The chances keep coming for the US, including a chance by Eddie Pope that goes just wide.

And then the craziness takes another, more serious turn.

That same Landon Donovan plays the ball in from the US right side, and it is a mess at the back – an OWN GOAL! The US has scored again!?!?!?!?

I can’t breath, I have lost my voice, I can barely see straight – we really, actually, could WIN! The craziness, the frenzy in the section is fantastic now.

Then again, there still is 60 minutes of soccer to play. That is a LOT of time – lots can happen in that time. No way we can take the foot off the gas now.

A scary moment – Beto goes into the US penalty area, and the whistle blows. Wait, what? What is going on? It is in the other end of the field, hard to see. But Portugal is walking away from the goal with their heads down, and Beto is shown a yellow. Simulation. Wow – big call there….

And then before we can really wrap our heads around that, Tony Sanneh – who? Yeah, Tony Sanneh gets free along the right side of the US attack, and he plays in a gorgeous ball that Brian McBride cleanly, elegantly slams home with a diving header – after splitting two Portugal defenders. It is the 36^th minute and the US is beating Portugal 3-0!?!?!?!?!?

I truly, deeply  lose my mind at this point. I am running up and down the stairs in amazement. I mean, not only the goals, but the glory and beauty of that last goal is just overwhelming.

As I get to the top of the section (and of 50+ rows, I was around row 20 to start with – so you get how out of my mind I was), I run into a friend of mine from Dallas that I didn’t know was making the trip. That clinched it – this was too good to be true, yet here we were. He was my reality check that this wasn’t a dream.

Oh. My.Goodness.

And by the time I got to my seat, I had gained enough composure to realize that our work had just begun. Now we were going to have to be the support, the belief that the team could finish this off. The heaving lifting had begun.

And it was soon after that moment that Beto finally did get on the scoreboard, finishing a bit of a mess in front of goal that put the score at 3-1. They had their goal and now some belief of their own.

Halftime. A chance to regroup. Beto’s goal made it all the more dangerous of a second half, so the challenge was clear. A little bit of celebration, but mostly it was “we have a LONG way to go, and now it is real work, serious work, work that matters.” This wasn’t an intellectual exercise, no longer child’s-play, a fun little dream to play with in our mind. This is a real chance to DO SOMETHING.

The second half, really, is a blur of blind support. Frankly, the own goal by Agoos didn’t even register – we were nervous about the way the game was going to go from the beginning of the second half, and that goal only gave a tangible feel to the pit in our stomach. The thing of it was, it was late enough that we did feel like it was do-able.

As the minutes ticked by, and the night got darker and darker, the belief was building as they missed chance after chance.

And then, it was over – the game was won! The lack of belief was still in the air, but the reality sunk in moment by moment as the celebrations ramped up – we had done it!

And in the stands, it was a sense of accomplishment like you wouldn’t believe. Here we were, halfway around the world, and the puny US soccer team not only had shocked the great Portuguese, but they had done so with thousands in the stands cheering them on – well. It was true, blue football support, recognizable anywhere in the world for what it was. When our team needed a voice in the stands, they had it in their most important hour.

The rest of the tournament was to come, but now it was a completely different tournament than the one we feared – now it was one of “how far can we go?” We weren’t the worst team in France anymore – now we were the team that felled the mighty Portuguese, with host Korea and a quality (but recently defeated) Poland to go. Certainly the Portuguese were now going to win out – they had to. So if we can get ties the rest of the way, a very doable goal, we just might advance!

But so much soccer was to happen before we really could think about that. The thought of facing 80,000 screaming Koreans (and boy, it absolutely was that) was sobering enough, but for the most part, tonight was a night to celebrate. We will think about the Koreans tomorrow – tonight, we had slayed the dragon and we had done so in impressive fashion. It was the emergence of a true soccer nation – and the culmination of the dream that began when the US was awarded the 1994 World Cup, through the embarrassment of that tournament that the team advanced, but we had no real supporters culture to speak of, to now standing tall in a foreign land, against one of the world’s footballing giants, and come out victorious.

I leave you with a link of the youtube highlights from that match, and a tease that the story of the match against Korea is around the corner.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rX1bbTaJ40