USA-Portugal - What are we going to do about this?

So yesterday, it was the Reality Check. Truth of the matter is this: a win over Ghana does nothing to change the fact that Portugal - on paper - is a better team, man for man, than the US, even without their injured players.

But as the New York Yankees prove more often than not, on paper means jack squat. Nada. Zilch. Dare I say - Cero. (See what I did there?)

The US has a glorious history of upsets in the World Cup and other major tournaments. England 0, USA 1 in Belo Horizonte is a probably the first, and if you are in-country, you probably can find someone who was there. (What a fantastic story that would be!!!!!) USA 2, Colombia 1 in 1994. Mexico 0, Estados Unidos 2 in Jeonju in 2002. And I would put the USA 1, Italy 1 in 2006 in that list. Down to nine men against the eventual champions? Probably the biggest win on the biggest stage against the biggest opponent wasn't in the World Cup, but it did break Spain's fantastic unbeaten streak in a knockout game - 2-0 in South Africa in 2009.

But the one that many of the Portuguese players will remember is the one that I am pretty sure launched the second wave of US soccer fandom - USA 3, Portugal 2 in Suwon, South Korea.

That is a fun list. It doesn't change the fact that Portugal are a very talented - and right also now, a very scared, injured and desperate - animal. So a lot of the underestimation that possibly played into a number of those other results probably isn't going to be in the air tomorrow night. But it still is enough history that any US fan has reason to believe a result tomorrow is quite possible.

As is Portugal's history of imploding. It is interesting, but one train of thought is that Portugal was so desperate to win the group that they threw everything into a game that shouldn't have mattered. Play the warm up, try to get a tie at worst, win the game if you can, but by all costs, don't lose 4-0 with a red card and a slew of injuries - because if you do, the winning of the other two games - something that should be very attainable - will become not only more difficult, but absolutely necessary.

Make no mistake, a tie does Portugal no good tomorrow. They are in must win mode. Whether they have to win both games will depend on today's match between Germany and Ghana, but on Sunday, no matter what happens today, they have to win. So there SHOULD be as much desperation as possible in the Portuguese side.

Which should play into the hands of the US. And here is where we talk about what the US has to do to get that all important tie or the incredibly awesome over-the-top-ness of a win.

Revert to the 5-2-3-1 and use its flexibility to do two things. First, attack Ronaldo's side. He is a fantastic player, but if he has to spend energy defending, it will be much harder to stay high and focus on that all important finish that he can produce to win the game.

I am not saying all out attack. The line of confrontation should be midfield, not their defending third. But when you do have the ball, attack with purpose, speed, determination. The US attack has to scare the Portuguese enough to commit real players to defense - not only Ronaldo, but also Nani.

And this brings us to the players. Assuming that Bedoya is healthy, then because of what you need to do, you bring in Zusi so that both wingers can drop back to defend and break out in attack. And make sure that Jones knows his first responsibility is defense, but when it is the right time, get into the attack. When operated properly, the 4-2-3-1 allows one side and one d-mid to attack without unbalancing things.

So the one thing that the US has time and again showed it can do - play organized, defensively structured and composed soccer - is the one thing they need to do incredibly well to get a result against Portugal and move closer to doing something unthinkable back in December: advance out of the Group of Death.

And here is the thing that gets me giddy. We have done it a million times to El Tri, including with half our roster injured or out on yellow cards, on the biggest stage ever (for the US) - the Round of 16 in Jeonju. But we also did it to Spain in the Confederations Cup in 2009. And it was by a very familiar scoreline.

Is Dos a Cero possible tomorrow? Absolutely. And although it might not actually be 2-0 - it could be 1-0, or under these circumstances, even 0-0, but getting a result that moves the US closer to advancing is absolutely possible. 

Just remember that the stakes are incredibly high, and every throw in, every tackle, every save is insanely important. And remember how important this is to Portugal. And how much talent they still have remaining, including that just like Messi just did to Iran, Christiano Ronaldo can do to any team, even one with Tim Howard in goal. That danger will ALWAYS be lurking.

So to that end, the importance of every move to neutralize that danger - force him to run to defend, not give away free kicks within 35 yards out (plus or minus), and when you get a chance on goal, finish it like your life depends on it.

Do that, and soccer glory for the USA is there to be had tomorrow.

The last time the US played Portugal in the World Cup, it was a similar opportunity and the Americans took it - although not nearly as many US fans were ready for the wave.

Are you going to be ready for it tomorrow?

Make sure you are - because it could very well be a moment of greatness that they will talk about for decades to come.

I am not saying the US will win. In fact, I am not saying the US is even going to tie - but despite the challenge, despite the opponent, the danger, the quality, the size of the moment, the US has a CLEAR HISTORY of doing so in the past, and is clearly capable of doing so again.

Seriously - at what point do we get to take a break?

This World Cup.

Goodness gracious, it is intense.

Without referencing specific games, just to be safe to anyone who might not have seen a game or two just yet, let's just say that there has to be something in the water down in Brazil because every game is so incredibly crazy, so wild and unpredictable.

Very few games have gone according to Hoyle. Ok, so Nigeria-Iran was a boring 0-0 match. And France-Honduras wasn't terribly surprising. But other than those, we have seen some amazing soccer. From the fantastic finish of the Switzerland-Ecuador match to the heroics of Mexico's keeper in their game against Brazil. USA scores in 34 seconds. Costa Rica upsets Uruguay, putting the "Group of Champions" on notice that, well, they really don't care what you won, when.

If you are reading this, odds are you are already deep into the tournament, so this is more of a mutual commiseration. But if not, yet you like sports at all, then you better start watching each and every game because the sports drama is only going to ratchet up mathematically for the next week, then geometrically for the week after that, and then exponentially all the way through the final.

And how about them CONCACAF teams, huh? Sorry, Honduras, but props to Mexico, the US and Costa Rica for starting off so well! It is only four games, but you have to like the way every team but Honduras have started the tournament. Mexico is now smelling advancement, while the US and Costa Rica have significant hurdles to overcome, but each has made their mark on this World Cup so far.

And for 90% of you, let me remind you that in no uncertain terms should you ever blink during the World Cup. Dempsey's goal being Exhibit A. Sports Happens, and in this World Cup, it is happening at break-neck speed. Keep those eyes glued to the game, and take in all you can. Push yourself to learn more, see more, understand more, and enjoy the payoff!

A Soccer Opportunity - Soccer on the Radio

In case you haven't heard, and from what I've seen on Twitter and Facebook, you haven't, KTCK - the local sports radio 880 pound gorilla known as The Ticket - is broadcasting a "World Cup Kickaround" show that starts at the end of The Hardline and goes for an hour, so basically 7 to 8 pm, Monday through Friday, and then from 11 to 1 on Sundays.

It is hosted by Peter Welpton of Lex And Terry fame (among others) and featuring Andy Swift (former general manager of the Dallas Burn, among other things), and other Ticket personalities such as Bob Sturm of BADD Radio fame.

So first and foremost, if you are into the World Cup, it is worth a listen. It is available on 1310 AM, 96.7 FM, as well as the SportsDayTALK app (iOS and Android).

But it also presents an opportunity to grow the footprint of soccer in Dallas area media. Think about it - we are often clamoring for more coverage of our sport and here is a new totally new avenue to consume. So if you want to make it easier for yourself to hear about and read about soccer, consider doing the following:

When on Twitter, talk about soccer, reference the show and use the following handles: @DFWTicket and @SportsSturm.

When on Facebook, post on The Ticket's Facebook page about soccer.

Tell people you know about it, especially soccer fans. If nothing else, let's make sure that there are a lot of people listening to the show.

Then, if after listening to the show, you like it, consider sending them positive feedback, again via Twitter and Facebook. I say positive feedback because, frankly, they are tuning out pretty much all of the negative feedback they get. Hopefully that makes sense. If not, feel free to email me at Kevin@LindstromEnterprises.net and we can talk in more detail.

Again, first, this is a great way to enjoy the World Cup more. But second, hopefully you can see the chance this presents to do more than just enjoy the growth of our favorite sport - it is a chance to accelerate that growth.

For many of you, you probably have all the past frustrating efforts in mind right now, and I don't blame you. Certainly, we have all had a moment of "this sport is bigger than this!". And if you have gotten bothered enough to try to say something, the response has probably been abrupt at best. So why would now be different?

Simply put, the acceleration of the sport has continued in ways beyond Dallas, and it is starting to penetrate. The fact that this radio show exists is proof of that. But the longer we have things like MLS with crowds like those in Seattle and Kansas City, the demand for the US national teams, etc., the deeper the demand grows. Bear in mind, ratings for soccer on television for events like the World Cup and UEFA Champions League - and even MLS - continue to grow at rates that are very noticeable. NBC's work with MLS over the past two years has been phenomenal. Yesterday's overnight for the World Cup opener was 3.1. For a mid-day sporting event, that is more than solid. No wonder networks are spending billions on soccer television rights in the US these days.

Did you hear about the most recent television deal between MLS and their marketing partner, SUM? The new deal is for eight years and worth $90 million a year. Here is Forbes' article. That, my friends, is real money. There is a ways to go, but that is some significant progress.

So for those reasons, efforts now to ask for more soccer media coverage will be seen in a different light. And the World Cup Kickaround, live on The Ticket weekdays from 7 to 8 pm and on Sunday from 11 to 1, is a fantastic opportunity to enjoy the sport we love in a new medium, and potentially, help give it some wings....

2014 FIFA World Cup - general expectations

So I finally filled out my brackets for the World Cup - with only moments to spare...!

While I am a Student of the Game, and have been involved with the game professionally since 2005, I am in no way a deep-throat kind of expert. What I intend on doing in this post is just sharing some general insights based on my past experiences attending, studying and following past World Cups. For what it is worth, that includes an in-depth analysis of past World Cup games, following the World Cup since 1994 and including attending the 2002 and 2006 editions. I worked for FC Dallas of Major League Soccer from 2005 until 2012 and am currently writing for MLSSoccer.com and the Dallas Morning News soccer blog, 3rd Degree.

Home-Hemisphere Advantage

First, let's talk generalities. The strongest of European sides will advance, surely, but the home-field advantage of being on the home continent - or at least, the same hemisphere - will likely still have some impact. Do not underestimate the impact of the larger number of fans who will be able to travel to Brazil from Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, and even Ecuador and Chile, and the passion they will bring to the stadiums. That is the one thing that I absolutely miss every time I am not in-country for the World Cup....

Mexico

I like Mexico to advance out of their group for a few reasons.  First, Mexico has traditionally played Brazil well - styles matter in football, and sometimes you run into a team that is your kryptonite. Well, Brazil doesn't really have a kryptonite, but just like the US usually gives Mexico fits, same for Mexico to Brazil. Second, Croatia is a good but not great European side - the travel will hit them. Cameroon is a wild card, but between the transition from Africa over and the fact that they aren't the strongest of African sides at the moment makes me think that this isn't their year to advance. Then again, the weather similarity may work to their advantage. But I still have Mexico advancing.

Chile

Here is the first real test of my Home-Hemisphere Advantage. Chile is a wonderful team, with attacking flair should make Brazil blush at times. Playing well, and in front of a lot of home fans, I think they push both Holland and Spain. Do they advance? It depends on Spain-Holland. If those teams draw on Friday, then I think Chile will have their work cut out for them. If one of those two were to get the full three points, I think Chile will take the second spot at the expense of the loser.

Some call this a group of death and I find that doubtful. Simply put, Australia are not as strong as either the US or Ghana.

Colombia

Another strong South American country, I see Colombia doing well, certainly winning the group. The rest of Group C is quite the enigma. Greece? Mid-level Euro side half a world away, without a lot of attacking power. Japan - lots of athleticism and some playmaking ability, but again, half the world away without some of the quality seen on other teams in the group. Ivory Coast? One of the strongest African sides, this is my pick to advance, but it is a tenuous one as their tour in the US was not as successful as they might have wanted it to be.

Group D - England v. Italy and Uruguay in control

On the Home Hemisphere theory, I see Uruguay making it out of the group. I fear for my England friends that they will be left back at the expense of Italy just because I sense more cohesion and committment - and confidence - from the Azzurri than the Three Lions.

Group E - France, Switzerland and Ecuador

Because of Honduras, this isn't really a group of death, but certainly, you have three quality teams in this group and I have no real idea who will emerge. Ecuador is not as strong as some South American sides, and with France losing Ribery, it is hard to really say that one of the three is going to dominate, leaving us to decide between the other two.

Argentina

What a walk-through group this appears to be for Leonel's side. Iran will be a competitive side, but only to the extent that they won't be Saudi Arabia circa 2002. Nigeria is not at its best. Bosnia-Herzegovina, on the other hand, will be a very dangerous side at the group stage level, but Argentina has the class to draw with them, and do better on goal differential in their wins over the other group teams to come out on top of this group.

(Skipping Group G - saving the best for last)

Belguim

This is Belguim's group to win, leaving Russia to likely hold off South Korea, but when you travel halfway around the world, who knows which team will do better. Cappello will likely get more out of Russia than Bo will out of Korea, hence my lean in that direction.

The Group of Death - Group G

In many ways, this could be its own article, and probably will be. For now, though, know that like Chile in Group B, for Ghana and the US, what happens in the other game will define their ability to advance. If there is a tie between Germany and Portugal, both European juggernauts will make it very difficult for either the African or North American sides to advance. If Germany or Portugal wins, though, and there is a winner out of the Ghana-US match, then they have a chance. Draws all around on Monday is very possible and that would throw things wide open. I do see Germany as the class of the group, with Portugal a clear second and Ghana and the US very hungry right behind that.

The Unexpected

Someone always comes out flat. France in 2002 ring a bell? Who knows who it will be this time, but that will be something to watch for. I think I have highlighted the possible sleepers and surprises, although to be fair, mostly I am leaning on the usual advantage playing close to home has on teams. Either way, it should be fascinating to see, especially with the groups that have three teams with legitimate resumes to advance (A, B, D, E and G).

Put on your big boy pants and get in line now - it is going to be quite a ride!