USA v. Portugal - Post Germany-Ghana

Actually, post Germany-Ghana and post Argentina-Iran. And there is reason for both the US and Portugal to fear the match tomorrow. Real, tangible, fear. The kind of thing you can smell in the sweat on your skin, that you can taste in the back of your throat. Delicious drama it will be tomorrow.

Fear for the USA

Let's start with the player that has been the only real competition Christiano Ronaldo has had for the FIFA Player of the Year award for some time - Messi. He scored a fabulous goal in second half stoppage time to give Argentina a 1-0 victory - exactly the kind of danger that "CR7" presents Sunday to the US. (If you haven't seen Argentina-Iran, to a degree, I apologize but really, what have you been doing with your life today?)

Every time you see the US play conservatively, defensively, tactically at times tomorrow, remember that. And remember that Nani is on the other side and is anything but a slouch. Both wings represent severe danger to the US chances to advance. To be sure, the US will need to attack. Absolutely, parking the bus is certain failure. But at the same time, this a time for tactical advances - at specific times, specific moments in the game, specific situations. Not for anything near even half the time.

Fear for the Portuguese

Now let's talk about the tie. Ghana showed itself very capable of competing in the Group of Death today, which should embolden the US to a large degree. Yes, Portugal, the team that beat you rather badly - embarrassingly, in fact -  had to fight from behind to TIE the team that we beat on Monday. Let that sink in, y'all. The US beat the team that just made a team that owned you on Monday wet their pants.

The Reality

As with everything, the reality is somewhere in the middle, and both teams have to deal with the implications of today's result.

First, let's look at the numbers, then we can talk about What It Means afterwards.

A tie puts the table as so:

Germany on 4 points after 2 games

USA on 3 points after 1 game

Ghana on 1 point after 2 games

Portugal on 0 points after 1 game

This prevents Germany from advancing based on a result in the USA-Portugal match. More importantly, it keeps Ghana's hopes alive. More on that in a moment.

A few more facts based on just the math.

A USA win tomorrow and Los Estados Unidos is guaranteed to advance out of the Group of Death.

A draw tomorrow puts the US and German team on four points, with Portugal and Ghana on 1 each.

A Portugal win tomorrow leaves Germany at the top at 4 points, with Portugal and the US tied on 3 points and Ghana on 1 points.

What Does It All Mean

First off, as it relates to Matchday Three - Thursday - no matter what happens tomorrow, other than a US win, Ghana will have something to play for against Portugal. This should be in the heads of the Portuguese as they can't look for "if we win today, we will play a defeated Ghana and it will be easier." None of that. In fact, no matter what happens on Sunday, I could very well see Ghana winning on Thursday as they came out of the game today with enough confidence to be quite a handful.

As much trouble as Portugal have had with mental fortitude, that could very well play into a lack of belief and add an additional layer of pressure that will, as discussed before, grow exponentially as the minutes tick by on Sunday.

Second, it should give the US position more strength across the board - a level of confidence that what they accomplished on Monday was quite relevant and in no way superfluous. The opposite of if Ghana had gone into the game and gotten squashed - leaving the US thinking, "oy, we fought tooth and nail to beat them and Germany crushed them just like Portugal...."

Of course, especially those of us who follow major College Football know that who played who is an inexact science at the best of times. But frankly, as important as confidence and mentality is in the World Cup, I'll take any edge I can get.

Beyond that, though, none of that matters one whit if the US loses. Which brings us back to how to apply it.

Sunday

This is an incredibly important game in the group - for every team. Portugal wins and everyone has something to play for on Thursday. Considering the way this World Cup has gone, that would be typical.

But for the US, the incredible opportunity that presents itself with a tie and the amazing reality of advancing after two games with a win have to be mouth-watering possibilities.

I think it starts with the reality that the US comes into the game from a distinct position of strength, at least in terms of their position in the group. And Portugal is a relatively known commodity. So take what I wrote earlier in "What are we going to do about this" and "Attacking Options", and let's get a little more specific.

I am all the more convinced that a 4-2-3-1 is called for. Actually, more of a 4-1-1-3-1 with Beckerman being the "stay at home at all times" d-mid and Jones being the second "keep defensive shape, but if the right situation presents itself, get forward in a safe way" d-mid, Bradley in the hole and Bedoya and Zusi on the wings.

Additionally, barring an amazing opportunity like what presented itself in the early moments of the US-Ghana match, stay home and stay compact, then find spots to put pressure on Portugal's unsettled back line, and for the love of all things, finish your chances.

Again, the longer the game goes, the more pressure will mount on Portugal. The trick is going to be finding times to possess high, and to attack. That has to happen, and it has to be effective when it does. Again, hence why Zusi is the player I peg to fill Altidore's spot on the lineup. But if the US can be tactically smart, situationally aware and take advantage of their chances - like they have against Mexico numerous times, including against them in the World Cup in 2002, as well as against Spain in 2009, a similar result is entirely possible.

Danger, Will Robinson - Danger!

It must be said, though, the vastly important difference between effective attacking at strategic times and what we saw for much of the Ghana match - an attempt to do just that (defend in an organized way, attack strategically) that frankly, failed. A large majority of the match, anything in the Ghana half was ineffective due to bad passing, bad decisions - generally, a lack of composure, not a lack of effort.

I don't think that will happen for a couple of reasons. First, I think a big part of that had to do with a formation not designed to do that, but rather to attack, and second, the injuries, especially to Altidore and Dempsey. Finally, the abject ineffectiveness of Michael Bradley. Relatively speaking of course, but I don't think we have seen a game that poor from Bradley in quite some time - certainly not since he originally went to AS Roma.

So going into the game knowing that we have a different tactical plan than the Ghana match, with personnel that fits that plan a bit better, and surely Bradley can't have two awful games in a row, can he?

There is one other thing, and this is something that probably surprised many, not just me - all the musculature issues. Beyond Altidore, also Besler and Cameron. And what is Bedoya's status? Remember, he was subbed out for injury late for Zusi. Remember, this game is in the Amazon - so the weather will be a factor. 

In most situations, I would favor the US over anyone from Europe, Asia or North America in terms of fitness. In Brazil, I would give South American sides the benefit of the doubt and Central and South African teams are just so athletic. So according to Hoyle, we would have the advantage on Portugal. But the injuries we had in the Ghana match give me pause. This will be something to watch.

A Tie Is Very Good

As excited as we might get about a win, even if a win doesn't happen, a tie is likely and that is a fantastic result for the US at this point in the tournament. If nothing else, it lays the foundation where both Germany and the US advance with a tie - and Germany advancing as the first seed. 

Considering what appears to be the relative weakness of Group H, or simply the fact that the US would have advanced out of the Group of Death, I don't see where the US would want to try to win that game and risk losing their position of advancement, and Germany would be happy to advance as the No. 1 seed. Frankly, I wouldn't expect Germany to just "let" the US tie them, but I can't see them opening up too much to try to get the win.

We will see how it plays out, but I am more and more encouraged by the history of the US being able to frustrate a talented but frustratable side, especially considering what appears to be a very unified and focused US team.

The questions will be (A) will the be set up tactically the right way, (B) can they  execute that plan, (C) will they be fit and healthy enough, and (D) can they keep their composure as the match temperature rises. Time will tell, but those are the things to watch for.

That and the next installment of the Jack Bauer video.

Sleep well, folks, for tomorrow, we dine in Hell! 

Digging Deeper into the Donovan Decision

It has been days, and still the decision to not include Landon Donovan in the US National team going to Brazil for the 2014 FIFA World Cup is a talking point.

As I have talked with fans and players alike, and read more than a few articles - some rather fire-breathing - I must admit I am more confused than when the discussion began, but I do know a few things more than when I wrote my first article - enough that I felt it worth another piece.

Before I go into that, though, I want to say that I have no direct knowledge of Landon Donovan or Jurgen Klinsmann, or anyone involved with the current US National Team program, so everything you see here is me doing as you probably are - sifting through various facts and details that are not continuous and contiguous. In fact, the quotes below are from the ESPN "Inside: US Soccer's March to Brazil" and therefore are not directly in context of "Why was Donovan left off the team."

I am going to break these into two groups of themes. The first group will continue where I left off in my previous article - possible reasons for Klinsmann's decision. The second group will touch on the concerns I am left with after evaluating the first group.

But I want to highlight something - I learned a long time ago not to make concrete judgments about a coach, certainly not without being in the middle of the practices and training sessions, and with the coaching background that professional coaches have, and with an intimate knowledge of the players themselves.

That comes from seeing things at the local level in Dallas (six different head coaches over nineteen seasons) and from the Korea and Germany World Cups, as well as various other matches in the US. Time and again, things impacted the way the teams played that there simply was no way to see from the outside. This may very well be another one of those times.

The Arguments For The Decision

Not a lot has changed in the public reasons for leaving Donovan off the roster, but certainly the vitriol has risen. Throw in Donovan scoring MLS goals 135 and 136 - breaking the record for most goals by a player in league history - and you have a cauldron of discussion all across the Twitterverse, Facebook and the internet.

But we do seem to have more details fleshed out for what I break into three different reasons why Donovan may have been left off the roster.

Grit?

It is probably unfair, but Donovan has been dogged by complaints that he hasn't shown consistent, professional grit - specifically, he hasn't taken on the challenge of European football and found a way to stick. I have always felt that this is unfair in large part because what it takes to make it to be a professional athlete is amazing - the physical work, the skill work, the mentality. It takes monumental grit to get to where Donovan has been in MLS and for the US.

But in this moment, the past doesn't matter. What matters is does (the player in question) have the (specific variable) to help the US National Team succeed in the toughest group in the 2014 FIFA World Cup?

And in this situation, does Donovan have the grit to keep pace with Jermaine Jones, Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey?

"We have to know what it means to compete at the highest level," Bradley said in the aforementioned ESPN piece. "We have to be a group that is ready to stick together and fight like a bunch of warriors together for 90 minutes."

"I've always been taken by athletes who aren't necessarily the best, the most skillful, the most talented players, but the ones who know what it means to compete and fight."

Chemistry?

I can't even say I know anything about this topic other than I know it is an open question. Considering the waves of support Donovan has been getting, from all over the place including public statements from players like Bradley and goalkeeper Tim Howard, I am tempted to say this is the least likely of the three, but there is enough there that I feel it must be mentioned.

"When we get to Brazil, those three games, the biggest thing is going to be our togetherness," Tim Howard said, again from the ESPN piece. "All the rest of it, we will have done. We will have done all the running, our lungs will be filled, we'll have the strength. Its going to be the togetherness."

Burn Out?

This is another topic that there really is no way to know from the outside, but is Landon Donovan able to play at a high level, consistently? He took a sabbatical for a reason, and clearly credit should be given to him for recognizing that and going and doing it. And you have to admit, he looked rather strong Sunday night. But one quote struck me the most from the ESPN piece, and this is probably the one that is most on point and most germane to the conversation. Of all the quotes, this one is clearly in context.

"Jurgen has made it clear to me that he needs me to be consistent and performing, "Donovan said. "Sometimes its a little difficult for me. I can't train 12 straight days in a row and have 12 straight great days in a row. Physically, its not possible. My body breaks down, I'm getting older."

"I want to make sure that when I get to camp in May that I'm performing at my absolute best."

And that is probably the ultimate question - was he?

Arguments Against

But I am left with some lingering questions. Ultimately, while the reasons above may give why he isn't a first choice starter, I - and I think most who question the decision - can't seem to shake the feeling that he still has a lot more to bring to the team than players who are less experienced, less well-rounded, less skilled or less athletic. I am not going to name names, but I think we all know different players that those terms could apply to.

And here is where I get uneasy, because when you look at the successes of the US national team in the World Cup, so much of it leans on depth, where being able to play a fresh player is the difference between getting out of a group or not.

My most vivid moment of me learning "I know not what the coach should do" was the USA-Portugal match in 2002. I happened into some information before the game - that Claudio Reyna, Earnie Stewart and Clint Mathis were not going to be available for the game. I was floored. We were scared enough of the Golden Generation of Portugal as it was - don't take away our No. 10 and two of the best players on the roster too!

But then, the game that awoke a soccer nation happened, with a certain Landon Donovan playing an integral role. This was the youthful, inexperienced, but supremely talented kid that coach Bruce Arena had force fed minutes throughout the post-qualification process. It seemed almost every match in preparation for Korea included significant time for Donovan, and it paid off in spades. Of course, it wasn't just Donovan that day, but he surely was a big part.

So on one hand, I want to give Klinsmann the benefit of the doubt as so often, it has been made clear to me that coaching professional soccer is a high art and no amount of research will make Monday Morning Centerbacking effective. I know I had a lot of doubts about the young Landon Donovan as Arena kept giving him game after game after game in the lead up to 2002.

But I can't help think that after we have played Ghana, and gotten a result, that in the next two games - massive matches against the Nos. 2 and 3 teams in the world - being able to start Donovan would bring more to the table than to start someone who currently has zero World Cup experience, someone who doesn't bring the range of skill or athleticism or experience playing alongside Dempsey, Bradley, etc.

Personally, I don't think it was Donovan over the youthful players. I *think* it was other players that Klinsmann believes will be a better part of the overall unit, come off the bench strong when asked to, not start and still be ready to go 100% when his name is called, whether it is because of a perception of a drop in form of Donovan, or whether it is the up and down nature of his ability over the last years, or ultimately is it this - a perception that Donovan wants to be the lead dog, isn't any more, and like many many many other former greats, isn't able to make that transition that other players in the US kit have to a smaller role.

And only time will tell whether Klinsmann got it right. I do maintain my somewhat blind faith in a coaching staff that is that professional, has that experience, including World Cup experience. I am sure he has sounded out some in his his leadership cadre and gotten their take on whether Donovan should be in the 23, and has more than just personal reasons for keeping one of the greatest players to ever wear the US kit out of this World Cup.

But after more than a few days to marinate on this, I can't shake a feeling of unease that maybe we over-emphasized certain issues at the expense of the overall equation - that the World Cup is a grind of epic proportions, and in this World Cup, the US faces a tougher group than they have ever faced, and a player of Donovan's ability and experience can be managed into a situation where he is a motivated, energized part of a collective heartbeat that can get the all important results against Portugal or Germany, or if the US finds a way to advance, against its opponent in the Round of 16.

And if not, is that a reflection of Donovan, or Klinsmann?